This weekend, down under in Melbourne, the 2025 Formula 1 season gets under way – marking the 75th year of the sport. Excitingly, it is the final year of the current ground effect regulations, introduced back in 2022. Last season, we saw the field converge to an extent where seven different drivers, across four different teams took victories! Consequently, in anticipation that an increasing number of teams will hit their development peak, the 2025 season has been billed as the most highly anticipated in years, further dramatised by a shaken-up grid that features 5 rookies, only 2 teams with unchanged lineups, and of course Lewis Hamilton joining forces with Scuderia Ferrari!
Strap yourself in, ‘25 promises to be a barnstormer!
The Title contenders… a 4-way fight at the front?
There’s been many discussions, trying to work out the pecking order between the top four teams. In reality, teams’ performance will likely vary from track to track. Ferrari thriving at tracks with low-speed traction zones like Monaco; Mercedes being optimal in the cooler conditions of Las Vegas, Red Bull are always imperious at circuits like the Red Bull Ring in Austria, but McLaren will potentially have the broadest operating window across the course of a 24-race season.
Admittedly, McLaren’s testing form has put somewhat of a dampener on the preseason rhetoric that ‘25 will be the closest season in recent memory. The Papaya team are starting the season as most people’s pick as early favourites. Specifically, Lando Norris is favorite to win the Drivers’ title. Yet the 25 year-old was quick to downplay the degree to which McLaren may yield a sizeable advantage, saying “I don’t think in any way we’re superior to any of our main competitors”. Ironically, Norris’ toughest competitor may come from within the team, in the form of his Australian teammate – Oscar Piastri.
Verstappen is looking to tie Michael Schumacher’s record of 5 consecutive Driver titles.
Defending champion, Verstappen is looking to tie Michael Schumacher’s record of 5 consecutive Driver titles. But he and Red Bull seem to be on the same page in believing that they will start the season slightly adrift of Mclaren. Nonetheless, the Dutchman remains the driver to beat. Verstappen has proven that he can compete with a car that is a few tenths inferior and still come out on top, as he did in the second half of ‘24. But if McLaren do come out of the traps flying then it will potentially be a case of ‘roles reversed’ from last season, with Verstappen hunting down Norris by the mid-stage of the season.
Of course, both Ferrari drivers will be in the hunt, Charles Leclerc was the driver that scored the most points during the second half of the ‘24 season, and the arrival alongside him, of a rejuvenated Lewis Hamilton – is a daunting prospect for the rest of the grid. It’s probably fair to say that Ferrari had an underwhelming preseason test in Bahrain. There was certainly hope and expectation that Ferrari would produce a championship car for this year, given that the team finished ‘24 with great momentum, marked by stellar victories to close out the season in Texas and Mexico.
The team have said that the SF-25 is almost entirely different to the SF-24, therefore the test was about understanding their new package. But if we were to judge purely off testing, it didn’t appear that Ferrari had maintained itself level nevermind hauled itself ahead of McLaren, rather it seemed now a part of a trio with Mercedes and Red Bull – all a step behind McLaren. Yet the noise coming from Maranello is that they believe their car has the greatest scope for improvement across the top teams.
Russell is perhaps an outside pick for championship contention.
As DeFacto team leader at Mercedes, Russell is perhaps an outside pick for championship contention. His chances are in part boosted by the assumption that youngster Kimi Antonelli, whilst rapid, will take some time to adjust to the pinnacle of motorsport, so in theory, Russell would have the full team backing in a championship fight. But on the other hand, Mercedes’ form has been so hard to discern across this entire ground effect era. They could be firmly in the fight; they could be distinctly 4th…
Testing winners and losers…
Winners – Mercedes
Mercedes racked up the most milage over the three days, finishing on a considerable 458 laps. Both Russell and Antonelli looked at ease in the car with Technical Director, James Allison, saying the car is “fairly predictable”, something the team has lacked in recent years. The most striking indication of Mercedes improved performance was that Antonelli’s first F1 race run – on the second day – was equal to Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari. In the wake of testing, there have been some suggestions that Mercedes may even have the second quickest car, behind McLaren!
However, a reasonable caveat to all of this, is that the abnormal, cool conditions in Bahrain might potentially have skewed Mercedes’ true pace relative to the competition. But certainly, just on the eye-test, the car looked far more planted; installing its drivers with confidence to push and attack.
Winners – Williams
Williams set the fastest time of the test as new star recruit – Carlos Sainz – looked immediately at ease in the car. And while perhaps running lighter fuel, the team are starting this season in a far better position that they started previous seasons, where they were overweight and below the cost cap.
Team Principal, James Vowles, has made no secret of the team’s focus on 2026, meaning the Williams we see at the start of the season could be close to its final form. This might manifest in some incredible results to start, and a potential tail off as the season transpires.
Losers -Red Bull
Red Bull accumulated just 304 laps across testing, the least amount of any team. Neither driver was able to complete a long run, and the team ran areorakes on the car right until the last moments, which suggests that they were still hastily attempting to collect data on their ‘25 challenger.
The team is bringing 15 performance upgrades to Melbourne, significantly more than any other team. Red Bull has talked about broadening their car’s operating window and allowing scope for further development, but this may result in a more laboured start to the season.
In the buildup to this weekend’s Grand Prix Max Verstappen has acknowledged that Red Bull might start the year on the back foot., “I know that we are not the quickest at the moment, but it’s a very long season”.
Losers – Aston Martin
They can’t have fallen to the back of the grid, can they? The team will certainly hope testing isn’t a foreshadowing of what’s to come in ‘25. Aston Martin had a questionable time in Bahrain, smeared with driver illnesses and a bizarre program that didn’t focus on qualifying or long run performance; leaving a lot of experts with doubts over where the team stand going into the season.
Aston Martin have predominantly been at the front of the midfield since ‘22 but it’s been quite a drastic fall from grace, back into the chasing pack. However, Alonso was insistent that the Aston’s ‘25 car is a “step forward” from its predecessor. In all likelihood, the team is either in that battle with Alpine and Williams or just a shade behind with the likes of Racing Bulls and Haas.
F1’s star engineer, Adrian Newey officially joined the team on March 3, but his focus is primarily on developing Aston’s ‘26 car. If the team really are as poor as some are suggesting, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them allocate all resources to next year.
How will the GOAT fair as a prancing horse and what does success look like for Hamilton?
This is biggest story in the history of the sport, Formula 1’s biggest brands joining forces.
It’s such a big ask for Hamilton to usurp a prime Charles Leclerc, someone who Hamilton described at Thursday’s Driver Press Conference as “very, very, very much Mr. Ferrari” – never mind challenge for the championship. We’ve definitely seen a revitalised Hamilton over the winter break, the 40-year-old likening his excitement for this new chapter, to his first year in the sport back in 2007.
Determinants of success are naturally dependent on his level of machinery. If the car is capable of a championship, then to challenge for both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ must be the aim for the Hamilton and Ferrari combination. Regardless of machinery, simply beating Leclerc over the course of the season would be seismic for the 40 year-old’s first year with the team. But even if he doesn’t, frequently matching and edging the Monegasque across both quali and race would mark a solid platform to build on for ‘26.
If we look at world champions who joined the Scuderia in recent times. Alonso won on debut with Ferrari whilst Sebastian Vettel won at the second time of asking. Hamilton claims he is “as prepared as I can be given the time we’ve had”. But that he will need the first half of the season to “build trust” with the team.
A fast start would aid the seven-time champs cause, as Melbourne is for Leclerc, the circuit where he has the worst qualifying teammate head-to-head against his teammate. Whereas, for Hamilton, not only has he outqualified his teammates 11/16 (68.75%) at Albert Park, he also holds the record for the most number of poles at Melbourne with a staggering 8. Interestingly he has taken every pole position when the circuit has opened the F1 Calander in his career (6).
I think Ferrari has a good package for 25’ and I am confident enough to predict that Hamilton will win races, but I also anticipate a period of adaptation and persisting qualifying frustrations to hold him back from title contention.
Wildcard…
Mercedes and George Russell.
With all the focus on Norris as the favourite, Verstappen and Red Bull on the back foot, the new dynamic at Ferrari. Do not count out Mercedes and George Russell from causing an upset. In the wake of Hamilton’s departure from the team, Mercedes have blended into the background and have quietly produced what at first glance is a very decent challenger.
Kings of the midfield
Pierre Gasly
I think the strongest driver in the midfield will be Pierre Gasly’s Alpine car, but I think as a team, Williams’ midfield super team will prove to be the best pairing. I expect both Sainz and Albon to fight Gasly in the battle for best of the rest in the points positions.
Perhaps Williams will come out of the traps stronger than Alpine, but I doubt whether they’ll continue to bring performance to the extent that the French outfit might.
Closest driver pairings
The most intriguing is of course, Leclerc versus Hamilton but in terms of closeness across qualifying pace, race pace and championship standing; Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman may be hard to split.
Haas and Sauber too for that matter, look as though they will either be the two at the back of the grid or a part of the hyper competitive midfield scrap and consequently, I anticipate their drivers will be very close. Surprisingly, Ocon has only beaten his teammate once across his seven years in the sport. And Bearman has looked mightily impressive, immediately up to speed each of the three times that he was called upon as reserve driver last year. At Sauber, there is a fascinating combination of youth and experience in Gabriel Bortoleto and Nico Hulkenberg. The 20 year-old Brazilian, Bortoleto, joins the grid as the reigning F2 champion. While Hulkenberg, the 37 year-old veteran, is enjoying a fine Indian Summer to his career – finishing last year as arguably a top 5 performer!
Elsewhere, it’ll be fascinating to see whether Norris is able to maintain his edge over Piastri, the Brit seemed to establish better momentum during testing than his Australian teammate. But entering his third year in the sport, if Piastri continues his trend of making progress year on year, especially if that progress manifests in one lap pace and consistency, then the Papaya boys could be problematically, inseparable. At Williams, Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon will be another pair to watch closely!
Rookie of the Year – Kimi Antonelli
This year we have the largest crop of rookies entering the sport in some time. For me, the ‘A grade’ youngsters are Kimi Antonelli and Gabriel Bortoleto. Despite Boteleto having beaten Antonelli to the Formula 2 title last year, naturally, Antonelli in a Mercedes will have more opportunities to shine than Borteleto with Sauber – who would appear to be the slowest car on the grid.
18-year-old Antonelli is the most highly regarded talent since Max Verstappen, having been built up to be a future great and even loosely compared to some of the existing greats. But given his age, it could be a case of high highs and low lows for Antonelli.
Race to save in your Callander…
Round 9 at the Catalunya Spain GP! That is when the new technical directive comes into play, meaning the pecking order could potentially be flipped on its head, especially between the top teams.
Barcelona could mark a pivotal shift in the championships trajectory
This is coming in to tackle the controversy surrounding ‘flexy wings’. A clever development that has concerned teams like Red Bull, who accuse McLaren of gaining a questionable advantage as a result.
Hence, Barcelona could mark a pivotal shift in the championships trajectory, as flexy wings, thought to act as somewhat of a ‘mini drag reduction system’ will be clamped down on.
Bold predictions…
The top 5 in the drivers’ standings will be separated by under 100 points come the chequered flag in Abu Dhabi. More specifically, Lando Norris; Oscar Piastri; Max Verstappen will all head into the final race with a mathematical chance of winning the championship!
Paddock agendas and 2026 driver market + regulations …
On track action is only the half of F1, the happenings in the paddock and the crazy rumor-mills are sure to also grip the headlines.
I have doubts over whether Jack Doohan will be able to fend off the looming presence of Franco Colapinto for the second Alpine seat. Interestingly, George Russell holds the keys in the driver market. The Brit is the standout, potentially available driver, out of contract at the end of the year and there is a seeming delay from both parties to sort a new deal. On Mercedes’ side, Toto Wolff is perhaps stuck up on the possibility of securing Verstappen. Mercedes regard Russell highly, but could tempt teams like Red Bull, Aston Martin, Audi to make a move if Russell begins to feel undervalued.
Cadillac are joining the grid for ‘26. Meaning 2 more race seats will open up… The team have made it clear that they would like to have at least one American driver, which could open the door to somebody like Colton Herta. On the other hand, there are proven race winners looking to rejoin the grid such as Valtteri Bottas, Daniel Riccardo and Sergio Perez.
Finally, the controversies surrounding FIA President Mohamed Ben Sulayem are likely to cast a long shadow over the season.
Drivers’ Championship predictions
I think Max Verstappen will remain imperious. Despite starting the season behind, I think he will haul his Red Bull into positions it doesn’t necessarily deserve to be. Red Bull will gradually improve throughout the season and come Round 9, I think the car will take a noticeable step forward or at least be on par with the front running pace. The Dutchman is still the best driver in the sport and as ‘the hunter’, will claw his way back to the top.
1 Max Verstappen
2 Lando Norris
3 Oscar Piastri
4 Charles Leclerc
5 George Russell
6 Lewis Hamilton
7 Kimi Antonelli
8 Liam Lawson
9 Pierre Gasly
10 Carlos Sainz
11 Alex Albon
12 Fernando Alonso
13 Yuki Tsunoda
14 Lance Stroll
15 Jack Doohan
16 Isak Hadjar
17 Esteban Ocon
18 Ollie Bearman
19 Nico Hulkenberg
20 Gabriel Bortelto
Constructors’ championship predictions…
Another championship fight between McLaren and Ferrari, who both prove that you need two, competitive drivers to win the constructors.
1 McLaren
2 Ferrari
3 Mercedes
4 Red Bull
5 Alpine
6 Williams
7 Aston Martin
8 Racing Bulls
9 Haas
10 Sauber
Australian Grand Prix Preview
There’s always an excitement for the first race, where we can finally eradicate the unknowns and establish a true pecking order. With that being said, Albert Park is somewhat of an outlier as a street circuit, known to be less abrasive than a typical track.
Melbourne has always been a happy hunting ground for Ferrari, but I think McLaren and Lando Norris kick-off the season as the team to beat.
In dry conditions, I anticipate a difficult opening weekend for Red Bull, who may also find themselves behind both Ferrari and Mercedes. Although, an 80% chance of rain on Sunday promises to add jeopardy and could bring Verstappen into race-winning contention.
I’m predicting a top 6 finish in the race for Lewis Hamilton, on debut for Ferrari.
In the midfield, the Williams of Carlos Sianz will lead the chasing pack!
Qualifying:
Pole Lando Norris
2 Charles Leclerc
3 Oscar Piastri
Race:
1 Lando Norris
2 Oscar Piastri
3 Charles Leclerc
