The Message was simple: ‘Brexit means Brexit’. One year following the referendum that divided the nation, the most epic divorce of the century is finally set to commence.
The thesis of Brexit.
All humans want to live better than we do. Adam Smith acknowledged our plight to become bigger and better: ‘a certain propensity of human nature to… Exchange one thing for another…is common to all men’. Smith believed his ideas would be relevant forever. True to his words, his remarks are indicative of our current political landscape.
‘Michel Barine, the eu’s chief brexit negotiator described the talks as “deadlocked”‘.
The vote leave campaign was a successful appeal to unite the people, acting as a notion of popular power. The policies promised a prosperous and nationalist future, launching three key policies, ‘Let’s give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week’, ‘A vote leave will be a vote to cut immigration’, ‘Five million more migrants could enter Britain by 2030 if Turkey and four other applicant countries join the EU’. On June 27th 2016 Iain Duncan Smith stated, ‘Our promises were a series of possibilities’. Sixteen months on, what is their status?
With our Prime Minister at the mercy of Brussels, it will become all too clear whether May’s Brexit agenda holds prowess or proves to be a compilation of pie in the sky ravings.
Earlier this month, Michel Barnie, THE EU’s chief Brexit negotiator described the talks as ‘deadlocked’. Ms May has herself ‘recognised the difficulty of the process’. In an attempt to break the deadlock, Ms May highlighted the need for a ‘joint effort and endeavour’ delivering clarity in the key areas of contest. The speech has indeed unblocked the stalemate in divorce quotes, however EU leaders remain adamant on their refusal to open talks with the UK concerning post-Brexit transition at the upcoming summit. The European Council president, Donald Tusk, provided a succinct summary of the summit discussion, outlining the progress in certain areas, particularly in regards to the rights of citizens.
Yet, the twenty-seven other remaining EU members undoubtedly hold a firm grasp on negotiations, evidenced by their meeting to discuss Brexit without May’s presence. European negotiators Michel Barnier Jean- Claude Juncker and company perceive the rising tide of immigration and the emergence of forest fires to be the major vocal points for EU discussion. The EU27 have recognised the ambiguity of markets. The longer the UK is ploughing in the field of uncertainty, dwelling on ‘we can’t talk to you yet about our future relations’, the pound will continue to fall, plaguing Brexiters with ‘worry’ and the movement into disarray.
It is not all doom and gloom within the UK! Drawing upon the principles of free trade, it is widespread knowledge that Britain and the EU gain from trade, when purchasing goods and services for one another. The benefits of Brexit thus far have been solely as a consequence of currency devaluation. The sharp devaluation of the pound, depreciating by more than 15 percent against the major global currencies has largely benefitted UK exports. Mr Rea provided a dogmatic response to how Brexit is shaping his Yorkshire based manufacturing business. In an interview with the Financial Times, Rea acknowledges the stark devaluation of the pound largely offsets the tariffs imposed by the World Trade Organization, which ‘is on average 1.7 per cent’. Akin to Mr Rea, the worldwide demand for UK exports (particularly specialised industrial goods) will ensure more UK manufactures are set to reap the rewards of a devalued pound.
‘the eurocrats can smell the fright of brexit’.
The EU27 has adopted a hostile and unforgiving stance to Brexit thus far. However, it is crucial for the EU to remind themselves of the costs it will inflict upon itself if it continues to pursue a hard Brexit. If suitable trade agreements cannot be made Britain should attempt to explain to the countries the role the UK plays in absorbing EU commodities and indeed people. As Juncker, Barnier and company are toying with Britain to cede more and more ground, Britain too could prompt the EU27 to reflect on what they too will have to sacrifice from a Brexit.
However, such propositions remain merely ideological. Britain has thus far failed to toy with the EU27. The Eurocrats can smell the fright of Brexit and are worsening the odor by shelving Brexit propositions.
Ms May is facing the harsh reality of Brexit. The threat of a no-deal Brexit is casting an ambiguous shadow over Brexit precedings. The EU27 is proving uncooperative and apathetic. Maintaining a properly informed populace is one of the biggest obstacles to democracy; – the Brexit narrative arguably relied on misinformation. Brexit has broken into disarray, plagued by ‘worry’ and ‘deadlock’ in negotiations.
The fanciful promise of prosperity and near paradise though Brexit appears aloof, but by no means out of reach.