Every so often there is a General Election that forces the losing party to reinvent itself. Think Blair after Kinnock and Starmer after Corbyn. Starmer and Blair understood that their party could not continue the way it was headed. Change was needed or they would remain electorally untenable. Now, after fourteen years, this is the exact position that the Conservatives look to be headed towards.
A perfect storm of scandals, low approval ratings of the Prime Minister, and political infighting have left Conservative spinsters questioning not how to win the next Election, but how to minimise their losses.
The sharp upturn in support for Reform has only exacerbated this, who, in recent polls, have been right on the tail of the Conservatives. Reform is unlikely to win many seats under our electoral system, but what they will do is steal Conservative votes so that the Tories are handed fewer seats at the election, and Labour even more.
As always, any political party will change and shift to survive, especially the Conservatives who are a renowned electoral chameleon. But where do they go? A more central approach seems unwise electorally as, well, it is occupied by Labour. And stretching more to the right may just play into the hands of Nigel Farage. Whose navy-blue suit seems to have been lurking around every corner for the past fourteen years. The Conservatives must feel like they have Deja-vu, another party to the right of them has cropped up just in time for an election year.
No matter how hard they try, the Tories cannot shake the rise of parties to the right of them. UKIP grabbed 12.6% of the vote in 2015 and reluctantly forced the hand of Cameron to call a referendum, which notoriously did not go his way. Even then, with Brexit done, the Conservatives probably thought they were out of the waters. It is clear they are not. Another attempt to reduce the threat of Reform has been to incorporate more populist right-wing policies. Its success has been limited. The Rwanda scheme is an undeniable failure, those in Reform agree with its aims, but say it does not go far enough. The cyclical rise of populism seems to be getting more persistent and frequent, and adopting these policies does not seem to swan off threats.
There is potential after the General Election for a seismic shift in the nature of British politics. There seems to be an opportunity arising. The Conservative party could seek to absorb Reform in an attempt to see off populist parties crashing their own. Electorally this makes sense, the Tories would be able to pick up more support while simultaneously quashing any future rivals to the right of them. We must not also forget that the right of the Conservatives, are near identical to Reform. The Tories’ deputy chairman Lee Anderson defected to Reform just a few short weeks ago.
Of course, this will come with its problems, the Conservatives will have to grant Reform significant political power if it is to accept. Needless to say, many Tories will be reluctant to do so, but with no ideological space left to occupy, it may appear they have no choice. The Conservatives would also become an ideologically borderless party split between more factions than previous. But they have made this work with tough whips before and can do it again.
If so, this risks plunging the UK into a dangerous environment. Increasingly authoritarian and populist rhetoric may dominate the political sphere and become the norm. Drastic removal of civil liberties could become commonplace, the ECHR will undoubtedly be ripped up, and social and economic inequality could skyrocket on top of the already increasing figure.
It all depends on what the Conservatives place first. Do they continue to stick with their electorally faltering rhetoric, trying to wait things out? Or must they accept that these waves of populism are longer and more intense than before and need to jump ship before it is too late? The One Nation Conservatives of the party may be hostile to this shift but with their jobs on the line they may follow suit, realising that more partisan dissent will only damage their career chances and the future of their party.
Of course, nothing is said and done. No votes have been cast and no seats have changed hands, just yet. But they are staring over the cliff’s edge and must decide what position they will take to rebuild. For the advisors already plotting a comeback, it seems Farage’s navy suit might just be the answer.
Where do the Tories go after the next Election? The answer could be right behind them
(Note – this article was written in late June)
Every so often there is a General Election that forces the losing party to reinvent itself. Think Blair after Kinnock and Starmer after Corbyn. Starmer and Blair understood that their party could not continue the way it was headed. Change was needed or they would remain electorally untenable. Now, after fourteen years, this is the exact position that the Conservatives look to be headed towards.
A perfect storm of scandals, low approval ratings of the Prime Minister, and political infighting have left Conservative spinsters questioning not how to win the next Election, but how to minimise their losses.
The sharp upturn in support for Reform has only exacerbated this, who, in recent polls, have been right on the tail of the Conservatives. Reform is unlikely to win many seats under our electoral system, but what they will do is steal Conservative votes so that the Tories are handed fewer seats at the election, and Labour even more.
As always, any political party will change and shift to survive, especially the Conservatives who are a renowned electoral chameleon. But where do they go? A more central approach seems unwise electorally as, well, it is occupied by Labour. And stretching more to the right may just play into the hands of Nigel Farage. Whose navy-blue suit seems to have been lurking around every corner for the past fourteen years. The Conservatives must feel like they have Deja-vu, another party to the right of them has cropped up just in time for an election year.
No matter how hard they try, the Tories cannot shake the rise of parties to the right of them. UKIP grabbed 12.6% of the vote in 2015 and reluctantly forced the hand of Cameron to call a referendum, which notoriously did not go his way. Even then, with Brexit done, the Conservatives probably thought they were out of the waters. It is clear they are not. Another attempt to reduce the threat of Reform has been to incorporate more populist right-wing policies. Its success has been limited. The Rwanda scheme is an undeniable failure, those in Reform agree with its aims, but say it does not go far enough. The cyclical rise of populism seems to be getting more persistent and frequent, and adopting these policies does not seem to swan off threats.
There is potential after the General Election for a seismic shift in the nature of British politics. There seems to be an opportunity arising. The Conservative party could seek to absorb Reform in an attempt to see off populist parties crashing their own. Electorally this makes sense, the Tories would be able to pick up more support while simultaneously quashing any future rivals to the right of them. We must not also forget that the right of the Conservatives, are near identical to Reform. The Tories’ deputy chairman Lee Anderson defected to Reform just a few short weeks ago.
Of course, this will come with its problems, the Conservatives will have to grant Reform significant political power if it is to accept. Needless to say, many Tories will be reluctant to do so, but with no ideological space left to occupy, it may appear they have no choice. The Conservatives would also become an ideologically borderless party split between more factions than previous. But they have made this work with tough whips before and can do it again.
If so, this risks plunging the UK into a dangerous environment. Increasingly authoritarian and populist rhetoric may dominate the political sphere and become the norm. Drastic removal of civil liberties could become commonplace, the ECHR will undoubtedly be ripped up, and social and economic inequality could skyrocket on top of the already increasing figure.
It all depends on what the Conservatives place first. Do they continue to stick with their electorally faltering rhetoric, trying to wait things out? Or must they accept that these waves of populism are longer and more intense than before and need to jump ship before it is too late? The One Nation Conservatives of the party may be hostile to this shift but with their jobs on the line they may follow suit, realising that more partisan dissent will only damage their career chances and the future of their party.
Of course, nothing is said and done. No votes have been cast and no seats have changed hands, just yet. But they are staring over the cliff’s edge and must decide what position they will take to rebuild. For the advisors already plotting a comeback, it seems Farage’s navy suit might just be the answer.
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