Japan has opted out of attending a United Nations conference on the treaty banning nuclear weapons, feeling it may send “the wrong message” regarding US deterrence.
In a news conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said that Washington’s nuclear arsenal remains crucial to Japan’s security. “Under the severe security environment, nuclear deterrence is indispensable to defend the people’s lives and assets, as well as Japan’s sovereignty and peace,” Hayashi told reporters.
The conference in question is the third Meeting of State Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), held this past week. The TPNW was approved in 2017 and implemented in 2021, following a decades-long campaign to prevent a repeat of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The TPNW was approved in 2017 and implemented in 2021, following a decades-long campaign to prevent a repeat of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
While Japan was not in attendance, Jiro Hamasumi, a representative from Japanese survivor’s group Nihon Hidankyo spoke at the conference. “Inside me, the war has not ended. This is because there are nuclear weapons in the world and nuclear warheads are ready to be fired at any moment,” said Hamasumi. Nihon Hidankyo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for their advocacy in nuclear abolition.
While Japan’s position having experienced a nuclear attack is unique, other advocacy groups have criticised their country’s absence from the conference. With no NATO nations observing the meeting, a representative of a Norwegian civil group expressed regret over the alliance’s absence, saying it was “not in [NATO’s] own interests nor their citizens.”
At the news conference on Monday, Hayashi also expressed that Japan’s presence as an observer at the conference would interfere with Japan’s ongoing effort to strengthen the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The conflicting interests of the TPNW and NPT lie in their expectations of nuclear weapon states. While the NPT recognises five existing nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the UK and US) and allows them to maintain their nuclear arsenals, the TPNW aims for complete prohibition and eventual elimination of nuclear weapons worldwide. The eventual elimination called upon by the TPNW would disarm the US of their nuclear shield, which Japanese defense is dependent on. Despite claiming to support the goal of a nuclear-free world, Japanese officials call the TPNW’s approach unrealistic, and call for a more pragmatic approach to easing global tensions.
The eventual elimination called upon by the TPNW would disarm the US of their nuclear shield, which Japanese defense is dependent on. Despite claiming to support the goal of a nuclear-free world, Japanese officials call the TPNW’s approach unrealistic, and call for a more pragmatic approach to easing global tensions.
These global tensions may be referring to rising threats from North Korea, Russia and China, which have increased Japan’s reliance on US nuclear deterrence.
There have been long standing geopolitical tensions between Japan and North Korea. In 2017, North Korea threatened to ‘sink’ Japan in response to their spearheading UN Security Council sanctions against a nuclear test the regime had recently conducted, alongside the US. Regional tensions were further heightened last year when Japan “erroneously” predicted that a North Korean long-range missile would land near the Japanese island of Hokkaido.
A territorial dispute with Russia, as well as Japan’s support for Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine war, involving a ten-year security deal worth nearly £3.5 billion, make Russia another threat to Japanese security.
Japan also faces threats from China, with whom they have had multiple disputes over maritime claims. Recently, China’s rising aggression in the South and East China Seas provoked a joint statement from Japan and the US, which strongly criticised China for their “escalatory behaviour” and non-transparent expansion of their nuclear inventory.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, accusing Japan and the US of “interfering in China’s internal affairs,” “creating confrontation” and “triggering a new Cold War”.
The rising threat of China especially seeks to challenge the dominant norm in Japan regarding nuclear policy. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, inducted in October of last year, has been vocal in advocating for nuclear deterrence and the importance of transparent debate on the subject.
At the beginning of his tenure, Ishiba stirred controversy when he proposed for Asia to create its own NATO, fit with nuclear weapons, to “ensure deterrence against the nuclear alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea”. Despite opting out of the UN conference in support of the US nuclear shield, Ishiba has expressed concern that current rising threats will render the deterrence extended by the US umbrella ineffective and leave Japan vulnerable to attack, hence his calling for further nuclear measures.
In his speech, Ishiba also proposed Japan review its “Three Non-nuclear Principles”, which have been guiding Japanese policy and public sentiment since 1967. The principles ensure Japan will not possess, produce or allow nuclear weapons on its territory.
The proposal for an Asian NATO has been met with domestic and international skepticism from national security experts and government officials, with a US assistant secretary of state calling it “too early” for plans for collective security in that context. Japan’s new foreign minister, however, has responded saying they see an Asian NATO as “part of our vision for the future over the medium to long term”, but are currently focusing on strengthening their multilateral security ties.
As for the future of the TPNW, Hayashi has said that Japan is unlikely to attend any future meetings related to this treaty.
