Starmer Must Go

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Plots to replace the Prime Minister abound. Sir Keir Starmer polls the lowest approval rating
of any PM ever, below even Liz Truss. Some polls put Labour in fourth place, behind Reform
and the Greens– minor parties, each of whose MPs can be counted on one hand– and
behind the historically unpopular Tories. Where did it all go wrong?

At the 2024 General Election, Labour won its second-largest-ever landslide, beaten only by
Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. However it was a broad but shallow victory: with a low voter
turnout, Labour won just a 33.7% voteshare, and fewer votes than at either the 2017 or 2019
elections under Jeremy Corbyn. Starmer’s impressive seat tally was a result of right-wing
vote-splitting between the Tories and third-place vote-getter Reform, who won 14.29% of
votes and came second in nearly 100 seats. It was more a Conservative loss than a Labour
win, with the Tories losing nearly half their vote share since 2019, and two-thirds of their
seats.

It was more a Conservative loss than a Labour win, with the Tories losing nearly half their vote share since 2019, and two-thirds of their seats.

Since taking office fifteen months ago, Labour has lacked direction. There is little ministers
can point to as evidence the government is significantly, tangibly improving people’s lives.
Rather than leading the national debate, and bringing the country with them on an ambitious
agenda, the government is constantly on defence, responding to the latest announcements
from opposition parties more skilled at framing the headlines.

The lack of direction from the government has created an attention vacuum that Nigel
Farage’s Reform UK is eager to fill. Reform has successfully shifted the immigration debate
to be on their terms, and the rudderless government has followed them. After the Home
Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s announcements of harsher treatment for asylum seekers,
she was asked, tongue-in-cheek, by Reform MP Danny Kruger whether she would join his
party. In chasing Reform voters, Labour has lost its purpose.

Ultimate blame must lie with the Prime Minister– a career public servant and lawyer, lacking
in vision, political instincts and communication skills. Even his promised management skills
are questionable given the number of personnel changes, errors and U-turns in his short
time in office, including over the winter fuel allowance and the two-child benefit cap. After
over a year in office, voters don’t want excuses or blame for the previous administration,
they rightly expect the government to fix things.

Starmer must go, and assuming the May local elections are a bloodbath for Labour, there
will be an opportunity for someone to move against him. Whoever the new leader is, they
must end the government’s reactive posture and start leading with a positive vision. They
should pay attention to the larger number of voters deserting them for the Greens and Lib
Dems than for Reform, and act like a Labour government. They must end the adherence to
austerity in an economy crying out for investment. And above all, they must end the
tone-deaf, Biden-esque defence of the status quo over which they are presiding.

Starmer must go, and assuming the May local elections are a bloodbath for Labour, there will be an opportunity for someone to move against him.

There are several candidates jostling for position. From Labour’s right wing ministers: Shabana
Mahmood, Wes Streeting and John Healey would continue Starmer’s strategy of chasing
Reform voters, though perhaps with better communication ability. From the ‘soft-left’: Energy Secretary and former party leader Ed Miliband polls highest among party members, though
he is tarnished by his 2015 election loss. Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is
popular among MPs but is fresh from a resignation over her personal finances, and is closely
associated with the Starmer government. The strongest contender is likely Andy Burnham, a
Cabinet Minister under Gordon Brown, defeated by Corbyn to become leader in 2015, now
best known as a successful Mayor of Greater Manchester. His main problem is finding a safe
Labour seat in the House of Commons to try and win at a by-election.