The Qatar Grand Prix, a weekend in which Lando Norris could have sealed his maiden championship in Formula One, turned into yet another disaster of a weekend for McLaren. Off the back of a double disqualification in Las Vegas, McLaren really needed to maximise everything they could this weekend to help their drivers. However, after a strategy call that saw both McLarens stay out and not pit under a safety car, they practically handed over the win to Max Verstappen. With Oscar Piastri coming in second to Verstappen, and Lando Norris only finishing in 4th, it means that we go into Abu Dhabi with the drivers’ championship anything but decided.
Despite Qatar not going his way, Lando Norris still heads into Abu Dhabi with the advantage over Verstappen and Piastri. So long as Norris finishes on the podium, whether that’s in 1st, 2nd or 3rd, he will be crowned the 2025 world champion, regardless of where Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri finish in the race.
At any rate, this championship is very much Lando Norris’ to lose.
Of course, Norris has a big enough advantage that he can actually still win even if he’s 11th or lower and scores no points, but for that to happen Verstappen would have to be 4th or lower, and Piastri 3rd or lower. At any rate, this championship is very much Lando Norris’ to lose.
Coming off of back to back wins in Las Vegas and Qatar, Max Verstappen is certainly heading into Abu Dhabi with some momentum. Another win for him in Abu Dhabi could seal the deal, however, there are conditions to his success. In order for him to become world champion, if he were to win, Lando Norris must place 4th or lower in the race for Verstappen to be successful.
In other words, if Norris finishes on the podium alongside Max, then it is Lando Norris who will be crowned champion, not Max Verstappen. There are other scenarios in which Verstappen would win, but all involve him having to be on the podium and Norris being 8th, 9th or lower. In the situation that Verstappen finishes second and Norris 7th, without Piastri winning, they would be tied on 414 points, meaning the championship would then be decided on countback. Given that they both have 7 wins this season, the championship would be determined by the number of second places. With Norris having 8 second places compared to Verstappen’s 6, Lando Norris would be the world champion.
In the case of Oscar Piastri, winning the championship is going to be a sizeable task. After having his chances of a race win ruined by his own team’s strategy in Qatar on a weekend where he was so dominant, Piastri heads into Abu Dhabi with the most work to do if he wants to get his hands on that trophy. Realistically, Piastri needs to win the race in Abu Dhabi to even have a shot, and not only that but he needs Lando Norris to be 6th or lower or else his win won’t be enough.
