Whilst claiming that he plans to battle on and remain in his post as the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer faces being outflanked on all sides. With an air of John Major’s ‘put up or shut up’ challenge to his rebelling MPs, Starmer’s rhetoric is that of someone who refuses to go easy. But how did he get himself into this position? He faces a high likelihood of losing his office less than two years on from a landslide general election victory, a victory over a fourteen-year-old Conservative winning machine.
The removal of the winter fuel allowance, freebies from Lord Alli, the Gorton and Denton by-election, and the Peter Mandelson affair, culminating in terrible local election results for Labour, took significant chunks out of the PM’s credibility and popularity. Elections in which the Labour Party lost nearly 1,500 councillors, haemorrhaging votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Zack Polanski’s Green Party, appear to have been the trigger for Starmer’s critics and supporters alike to start making their moves against him.
To launch a Labour leadership campaign, an MP must have the support of 20% of the MPs, which amounts to 81 MPs with the current composition of the Labour Parliamentary Party.
So, as Starmer builds his defences, who are the challengers to his throne?
The Favourites
Wes Streeting
Speculation around the MP for Ilford North’s movements became clear when he resigned from his position as the Minister for Health. Allies claim he has the numbers to launch a campaign, yet he has stopped short of launching it thus far. Whether this is due to potential fears of the political idiom: ‘whoever wields the sword, never wears the crown’ or simply that he doesn’t think he has the support, is yet to be seen.
The grandson of an East End friend of the Kray twins, Wes Streeting, was elected to parliament in 2015. He is seen to be in the Blairite camp. Situated on the right of the Labour Party, Streeting has argued for a pragmatic approach to private companies’ involvement in the NHS in his role as Health Minister.
His close ties to Peter Mandelson have caused great controversy and damaged his popularity and perceived judgment of character. His closeness to Starmer throughout his tenure is also viewed as complicity with his failures.
Streeting’s minuscule majority in his constituency is also a cause for concern. His London seat’s 1% majority was won during a massive national swing towards Labour. When looking at recent election results, questions will be raised as to whether he will be able to keep his seat at the next election, let alone become PM.
Andy Burnham
The Mayor of Greater Manchester is the most popular Labour politician, according to YouGov. Known as the King of the North, Andy Burnham commands serious authority and respect among all parts of the Labour Party and more broadly the Labour movement. He is popular with MPs, members, and Trade Unions alike. Burnham seems the natural choice; however, he faces one major problem… he isn’t an MP.
Extremely successful, both politically and electorally as mayor, Burnham’s seat predicament has left him in the fortunate position of being able to distance himself from the unpopularity of Labour in Westminster.
Andy Burnham’s route to the premiership is far more difficult than the others on this list. As he is not a current serving MP, he cannot become the leader of the Labour Party. However, some constitutional loopholes mean that he can become prime minister. There is the route through the House of Lords, but that is unlikely and raises a legitimacy issue that will be hugely unpopular, or, as Alec Douglas-Home successfully did for 3 weeks, he could technically be Prime Minister without being in the Lords or the Commons, which Douglas-Home did whilst he renounced his peerage and found a seat to contest in the House of Commons.
These options are all highly unlikely, unpopular, and methods of the past. Andy Burnham will need to find a parliamentary seat to contest any potential leadership challenges. To add, consideration needs to be given to Labour’s polling, even if Burnham finds a seat, is it winnable as a Labour candidate?
The King of the North was blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election that saw the Green party take the seat from Labour, with many supporters attributing this loss to the fact that Burnham wasn’t on the ballot. Rumours circulate that MPs are willing to give up their seat to force a by-election that Burnham could stand in.
Seen to be from the ‘soft left’ of the party, he has run for the leadership twice before, in 2010 and 2015. Burnham has been on a few political journeys throughout his career. He served in both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown governments, voted for the Iraq war, served in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow government, and released a 30-page manifesto on ‘aspirational socialism’. He certainly has good political instincts, but whether this will be received positively by the public or instead will he be viewed as a weathervane, remains to be determined.
Angela Rayner
A popular figure within the Labour Party, the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne, is viewed as someone who could win back the traditional, red wall Labour supporters. Her past, rooted in the trade union movement, will reinvigorate a branch of the Labour Party that has been weakened and lost under the premiership of Starmer. Hailing from the ‘soft left’ of the party, Angela Rayner offers a return to a more socialist rooted labour party.
Rayner commands authority in the party; she was Labour’s deputy leader for 5 years between 2020 and 2025 and was deputy prime minister from 2024 until her resignation in 2025. Her resignation is a point of contention; she was found to have broken the ministerial code regarding the stamp duty paid on a property. This resulted in severe condemnation. Her removal from front-line politics has reduced her visibility; this, alongside her tax controversy, has consequently seen a slight waning in her popularity in the last few months.
However, she remains a powerful and widely liked figure on the left of the Labour Party. If Andy Burnham fails to get back into parliament in time for a leadership challenge, she will likely be the strongest force from the left of the party.
Ed Miliband
The Energy Secretary may see this as his chance at redemption. A decade on from his general electoral defeat in 2015 at the hands of David Cameron’s Conservative Party, Ed Miliband’s allies will point to his experience that many of the other contenders lack, experience that includes already having been a party leader.
The son of a Marxist intellectual, Miliband is another politician from the ‘soft left’ of the party and was a strong supporter of Gordon Brown. His progressive agenda in his role as energy secretary has been popular with the left and kept him a constant figure in the news cycle.
Whilst being the MP for Doncaster North since 2005, he defeated his own brother to become the leader of the Labour Party in 2010, so he is not to be underestimated on the grounds of determination. However, his failure at a general election before raises questions regarding his effectiveness as a leader and whether looking to the past is a wise idea for the Labour Party at this moment.
The Outsiders
Al Carns
The dark horse of this race. The minister for armed forces was previously a Royal Marine up until his election to parliament in 2024 as MP for Birmingham Selly Oak. Al Carns is a widely unknown political figure, but momentum is building around him.
His lack of experience, having only been in parliament since 2024, raises questions about his political abilities and whether the political establishment and the machine that is the Labour Party will fall in behind him. However, his military past projects him as a source of stability and coordination. This might just allow him to break through the middle of the other candidates and provide a fresh start in what some see as a stagnant government.
Shabana Mahmood
Known for her tough stance on immigration, the Home Secretary comes from the right of the party. Shabana Mahmood aligns herself with ‘Blue Labour’, a socially conservative wing of the Labour Party. The MP for Birmingham Ladywood since 2010, Mahmood declined to serve in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet but did in Ed Miliband’s.
She will be a popular candidate with those who think Labour’s route to recovery is fighting for votes that were lost to Reform. However, her position on immigration has made her an unpopular figure with many on the left of the party.
