In recent years, it has felt as if the gap between the end of one tennis season and the beginning of the next is shortening year on year. This year will be no different, as a mere 28 days since the final shot of the 2025 season, the first grand slam of the 2026 season will get underway in Melbourne.
Jannik Sinner and Madison Keys enter the Australian Open as defending champions. Sinner eased past Alexander Zverev in last year’s final while Keys shocked two-time previous winner Aryna Sabalenka to finally get her hands on her maiden grand slam title. But as always, there is far more intrigue to the year’s first major than simply the defence of titles.
Can anybody catch Sinner and Alcaraz?
It seems almost too obvious, or too lazy to make the headline of this tournament be the rivalry between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, but it’s really the only place to start. Having shared the past eight grand slams between them, it was their five-hour-plus classic at last year’s French Open that made it clear to the world that they were a level above their competition. In the months and tournaments since, the gap appears to only have widened, and the pair have continued to meet each other in the finals of tournaments.
Novak Djokovic has spent the majority of the rivalry as the third wheel, but his body is catching up to him. The 24-time grand slam winner has even managed to sneak a few wins against his younger counterparts but has struggled to show the levels of fitness required to match them over the three-hours a match at a grand slam requires. This edition of the tournament he has won a record ten times, and it could be one of his last windows to claim one more major trophy.
Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas have all had a rough few years since they were branded as the ‘new big three,’ and the natural successors to Djokovic, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer. With just one grand slam trophy from ten finals between the three of them, it has looked in recent years as if they might fade into obscurity while the younger Sinner and Alcaraz grew into their games. That said, Medvedev and Tsitsipas have looked like new players in form in early tournaments this year, but whether or not psychological scars from previous disappointments at the four major tournaments can be overcome remains to be seen.
As for younger contenders, the absence of Britain’s Jack Draper and France’s Arthur Fils will deal a serious blow to the hand of the chasing pack. Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz look again to end the two-decade wait for an American male slam champion, although both have been on the end of heavy defeats from Sinner and Alcaraz in the past year. Alex de Minaur leads the cohort of home hopes, even if the Australian will have to meet Alcaraz in the quarterfinals should both players get there.
Who is up to the task of beating Aryna Sabalenka?
Even with the surprising losses Aryna Sabalenka took in the finals of last year’s Australian Open and French Open to Madison Keys and Coco Gauff respectively, her omnipresence as the dominant figure in women’s tennis has been nothing short of spectacular. The ease with which she is able to overpower any opponent at the opposite end of the court has left her as the safe bet for any tournament she is entered into.
Despite [Swiatek’s] attempts to drown out the chatter in the run-up, how she deals with the pressure will undoubtedly affect whether or not the Pole becomes only the tenth woman to reach the achievement
Gauff and Keys however lead a strong American contingent of challengers that sees 4 of the top 10 seeds being from the USA. Jessica Pegula’s consistency has been her greatest strength since she made the jump into the world’s top ten a couple of years ago, while Amanda Anisimova’s incredible run to the US Open final in September suggests she has bounced back from her heartbreaking 0-6 0-6 loss in the Wimbledon final at the hands of Iga Swiatek.
For the part of Swiatek, her win at Wimbledon meant that the Australian Open is the last grand slam needed for her to complete the coveted ‘Career Slam.’ Despite her attempts to drown out the chatter in the run-up, how she deals with the pressure will undoubtedly affect whether or not the Pole becomes only the tenth woman to reach the achievement.
One must also consider outside shouts for women’s grand slam winners too. Elena Rybakina may be coming off a win at the end of year WTA finals back in November, but her form at the majors in recent years has left much to be desired. Jasmine Paolini last year struggled to replicate her 2024 form that saw her reach two major finals but has managed to get her 2026 campaign started reasonably well. Still 18, Mirra Andreeva is growing into her game by the month but has a hard first round draw against former Wimbledon semi-finalist Donna Vekic.
Which Brits are we looking out for?
In the absence of Jack Draper, whose start to the season has been delayed by the bone injury in his elbow that has seen him not compete in a match since the US Open, it’s former world number eight Cam Norrie who leads the British charge for the men. Seeded 28th in Melbourne, Norrie reached at least the third round at three of last year’s grand slams, and only had those runs ended by Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon and Novak Djokovic in Paris and New York. Arthur Fery made it through qualifying to get into his first grand slam draw outside of Wimbledon but has a difficult first round against Italian youngster Flavio Cobolli. Jacob Fearnley started his 2025 season well with a win at this tournament but struggled to carry his form into the latter parts of the season, although has a kind opening draw against Kamil Majchrzak.
Emma Raducanu’s 2026 has started off affected by injury, but a decent run in the warm-up tournament in Hobart will fill her with confidence, even if she is staring down a matchup with Aryna Sabalenka in the third round. Sabalenka got the better of Raducanu in all of their meetings last year, but Raducanu pushed her to a level few of her opponents had. Sonay Kartal and Fran Jones have been the surprise packages of British tennis in the past year and will be looking to carry their form into the new year. Katie Boulter has struggled to achieve the levels she did a couple of years ago when she was the highest ranked British player, although often enjoys elevated levels of support in Australia due to her engagement to home-favourite Alex de Minaur; Boulter herself being seen as an ‘honorary Aussie.’
On both sides of the draw, the Australian Open will be defined by the ways in which those at the peak of their powers manage to hold off the chasing pack.
