Upon the government collapse emerging from a no-confidence vote in December 2024, it became evident that Germany wanted political change. This came after Olaf Scholz took over Angela Merkel as chancellor in 2021 within a red-green-yellow “traffic-light coalition” between the SPD, FDP and the Greens, upon Merkel ending her 31-year-long political career.
Ahead of the election, polls have consistently suggested that the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – and the controversial far-right Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland or AfD) would dominate the election, both scoring the highest amongst opinion polls.
The SPD – Social Democratic Party, represented predominantly by Olaf Scholz – scored high upon the election’s initial announcement, but ended up in third place amongst AfD’s rapidly rising popularity.
“[…] minor parties in Germany still hold significant chances of contributing to the formation of a coalition.”
EXIT POLLS & RESULTS
As the exit poll results and first counts rolled in on Sunday evening, the CDU rapidly earned and maintained a 29% vote share – still not enough to win a majority, meaning that the talks of a coalition began quickly.
The far-right party AfD was first estimated to win ~19.5% of all votes based on the same polls, followed by SPD (16%) and the Green Party (13.5%). Other parties typically scored less than 10% each, though this is not to be seen as a loss – minor parties in Germany still hold significant chances of contributing to the formation of a coalition.
SDP’s Olaf Scholz conceded defeat shortly after the exit polls were released, accepting that he was to blame for his party’s decreased performance. Yet, shortly after, he concluded that he would “never accept” the AfD or their “good result”.
In contrast, Alice Weidel (AfD leader) has described her party’s exit poll performance as “historic” – despite only a mere 20% vote share. She further proposed that her party is open to coalition negotiations with the winning CDU or any other party.
The upcoming coalition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) reacted to the exit polls with the comment, “Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we will start working. […] The world out there is not waiting upon us.”
According to local polling institutions, projected voter turnout for the election reached just over 84% – a 7.6% increase from the previous 2021 election. This includes a 9.3% voter share loss for the SPD, and a notable 10.4% gain for the AfD. The election saw many individuals who had not voted before, and a significantpercentage of them cast the first vote of their lives for the AfD.
The leftist-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which lacked just over 13,000 votes to enter parliament, have since proposed a formal recount of the election, with some Germans abroad, including the ambassador to Britain, claiming not to have received their postal ballots on time for the election – questioning the validity of the election result.
Furthermore, for the first time ever, the Berlin district of Marzahn voted for a right-wing party (the AfD) – and Berlin overall is now no longer Green, though it has only shifted to The Left.
The CDU are due to form a coalition with another party relatively soon – it has not yet been declared what the coalition will be, but several CDU/ SPD coalitions have existed in previous governments, with some of them taking place during Merkel’s significant chancellorship.
“Alice Weidel (AfD leader) has described her party’s exit poll performance as “historic”.”
THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESULTS
Even though AfD didn’t win, their rise to power and undeniable influence is concerning – being the first far-right party since the NSDAP (Hitler’s party) to gain such influence. Though most of the German parties have pledged not to form a coalition with the AfD, there have since been talks of what their increased voter share will mean for the German legislature (Bundestag).
Upon Elon Musk declaring his support for the far-right party, claiming that “Only AfD can save Germany”, many quickly became worried about what their rise to power could mean. With the party’s politics including anti-EU policies (despite Germany being located right in the centre of Europe and the EU) and perseverance of the traditional nuclear family (despite Weidel herself being married to an immigrant woman) – it quickly became apparent that the party is full of contradictions and inconsistencies.
Even more concerningly, voter share reports have suggested that the AfD was the second choice, after The Left Party (Die Linke), for young people – showcasing a shifting notion within politics.
The GDP of Germany, the largest European economy, has shrunk in the past two years. To this, Merz promises domestic tax cuts and an “economic turnaround”. He has also spoken out against the SPD’s proposed 10% bonus on any investment covered by the state. Globally, Merz is against President Trump’s tariffs and wilfully challenges China’s “risky investments”.
As world leaders began congratulating Merz, Donald Trump told in a press conference that America has “more important things to worry about” – later stating on the social media platform Truth that the German people “got tired of the no common sense agenda”.
“[…] voter share reports have suggested that the AfD was the second choice, after The Left Party (Die Linke), for young people – showcasing a shifting notion within politics.”
Migration and security are two examples of significant concerns for the election due to multiple violent attacks which were confirmed to have been carried out by migrants around Germany – such as the 19-year-old Syrian refugee who stabbed a Spanish tourist at the Berlin Holocaust memorial just 48 hours before the election.
In response, Merz says that Germany needs tougher migration policies but does not go as far as the AfD. He later vowed to make Germany “present in Europe again”.
With the promised fast-emerging coalition talks, it seems the CDU is ready to start working – and perhaps luckily for us all, it is not the AfD that the party wishes to work with, tells Merz upon declaring his win.
