ELECTION BACKGROUND
Upon President Andrzej Duda’s second term coming to an end, Poland’s citizens are preparing to elect a new executive branch of government, and the closest call in pre-election reports and debates suggests it will be a close battle between the current Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and the right-wing candidate, Karol Nawrocki.
It is interesting to note that, whereas Nawrocki has not been officially announced as a representative of the Law and Justice Party, all of his campaigns have been supported by the party in question.
A two-round system is used for presidential elections in Poland – meaning that unless any of the thirteen listed candidates score a 50% majority of all votes, a second round is held two weeks following the first, where only the two leading candidates from the first round make it through.
Not all candidates are assigned to a political party – for example, incumbent President Duda was originally a candidate of the Law and Justice party, but he later stepped away from it in his second term. Duda scored 43,50% of the voter share in the first round of his second term in 2020, meaning a second round went on, where he ultimately scored 51.03% of the votes.
In this election, however, despite most candidates not being officially assigned to the party with which they have been previously involved with, a lot of their policies and messages match their background work within politics. The official candidates endorsed by any parties are as follows:
- Grzegorz Braun, endorsed by the Confederation of the Polish Crown Party (a right-wing nationalist party, often shortened to ‘Crown’ or ‘KKP’),
- Szymon Hołownia, a previous ‘Poland’s Got Talent’ presenter, representing his own party, Poland 2050,
- Marek Jakubiak, representing the nationalist-liberal Federation for the Republic,
- Sławomir Mentzen, a popular candidate who has broadly claimed that he has “the highest chances of winning against Trzaskowski in the second round” – representing Korwin Mikke’s right-wing Confederation Liberty and Independence party (often shortened to just ‘Confederation’, separate from the previously mentioned KPP)
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the current Mayor of Warsaw, representing the Civic Platform, of which he is currently the deputy leader,
- Marek Woch, from the Nonpartisan Local Government Activists United by Poland movement,
- Adrian Zandberg – from the left-wing Together Party, led and founded by the candidate.
The rest of the candidates are not officially linked to any party, though many, if not all, continue to be associated with the parties for which they have previously worked. For example, the candidate Magdalena Biejat and her work with the Left party.
Polish presidential elections are held every five years. Poles abroad, including myself, were able to vote at registered polling stations around the country, including one in Exeter.
EXIT POLLS & RESULTS
After 10 years of Duda’s presidency, the first exit polls indicated Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski’s marginal win, scoring 30,8% of declared votes, and Nawrocki scoring 29,1%; meaning a second round will go ahead on the 1st of June.
Trzaskowski previously lost the 2020 presidential election to Duda, and upon re-running, it seems his policies have grown in popularity over the past five years.
Comparing this to the final results, Trzaskowski was still in the lead, scoring 31,36% of the total counted vote share, with over 6.1 million votes. By contrast, Nawrocki scored a close 29,54% of votes, with 5.7 million votes.
Four candidates battled for fourth place – Braun, Zandberg, Hołownia and Biejat, listed in the order of the total vote share – all scoring between 6,34% and 4,23% of total votes after Mentzen’s 2.9 million votes.
With a record turnout of 67,31% of the country casting their votes, it appears Poland is ready for change, and they are prepared to take the necessary action for it.
With a large international community of Poles living abroad, Nawrocki scored the most votes from Poles in the US. In the UK, an overwhelming 35,91% of Poles voted for Trzaskowski, with Mentzen (18,84%) in second place.
Over 36,82% of all international votes were cast for Trzaskowski, with Mentzen still in second place (16,58%) and Nawrocki in third (16,07%). The fourth place was equally close within the country’s borders as well as outside of them, with the same candidates scoring between 11,07% and 3,43% of the international vote share.
THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESULTS
With the current Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, representing the same party as Trzaskowski – the Civic Platform, it seems Poland could finally unite in its politics.
The Polish National Assembly, consisting of the Sejm (the lower house) and Senate (the upper house), is currently led by a coalition of the Civic Platform, Poland2050, the Polish People’s Party, and The Left.
However, it is significant to note that the Law and Justice party is still the leading opposition party, currently holding 190 seats in the Sejm.
In the second round, many will vote tactically, with the third biggest candidate, Mentzen’s votes (who scoredover 2.9 million total votes), likely going towards the right-wing candidate Nawrocki, and the votes of more progressive candidates, such as those of Biejat or Zandberg, will likely be cast towards the centre-left Trzaskowski.
Metzen’s third place, with the candidate representing the right-wing nationalist Confederation Party, showcases a potential move towards increasing right-wing politics – a trend growing in popularity worldwide, and especially in Europe.
With his anti-EU stance and several concerning statements regarding abortion rights and women’s safety, including a statement he made in response to Magdalena Biejat’s question, during one of the publicly televised debates, regarding how all cases of abortion, even in cases of rape, should be criminally prosecuted.
As mixed first impressions come in, with some candidates celebrating even their small wins and many vowing to keep up their work, ultimately, it will be a close call for Poland to determine their next president in two week’s time.
Until then, campaigns will continue for the two leading candidates.
*Sources referenced have been translated directly by the writer and editor, Magdalena Kanecka, and have not been manipulated or interpreted to prove or disprove any political means.
