Earlier this year, President Trump seized Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan President at the time. While Maduro’s capture was made on the allegation that he was sending drugs to the US, this move gave Trump access to the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves. In 2008, Venezuela was counted among the top 10 oil producers in the world, with nearly 3 million barrels produced a day. By the end of 2025, the country averaged just 921,000 barrels daily, a decline attributed to issues with the current system by William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. With no immediate plans set, there are many questions over how Trump plans to tackle this complex situation, and all the practical difficulties that surround it.
The decline of Venezuela’s oil production can be attributed to the governments of Maduro, and previously Chavez, who used money from the state-owned oil company PDVSA to fund social spending across the last decade. William Jackson reflects that this led to a lack of investment in necessary equipment, degrading the once impressive system after years of neglect. However, this is not simply a one track issue, with the US also playing a critical role. In 2017, Trump issued a series of economic sanctions on the state, reducing oil exports to the US, and placing immense pressure on Maduro’s government, with further stress added at the end of last year, with a naval blockade. These impositions currently remain in place, allowing Trump to maintain control in the predicted $2.8 million worth of oil for the follow years, supposedly for the growth of both Venezuela and the US.
The US President is also pushing for major oil companies to start spending in Venezuela again. However, many such as Exxon Mobil, the premier American multinational energy corporation, consider this too expensive and risky due to previous debts and the stagnant nature of oil production currently. Without this, the Venezuelan oil Trump procured will remain unfit for international oil refining, creating a serious challenge to the President’s ambitions.
Venezuela’s dire position is a dauting task for Trump to tackle. Thomas Watters, managing director and sector lead for oil and gas at research firm S&P Global Ratings, believes the US has the capacity to fix production levels, with the model of US economic managing a strong example. However, he stresses that needs to make economic sense, in order to make it a worthwhile investment, rather than simply a political statement against the Venezuelan government.
