How he did it again

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The results are in – Trump has won, he’s won big and America is forever changed. 

In pulling off the greatest comeback in modern political history, and in achieving such a convincing victory, Trump has cemented his nativist brand of politics as a vote-winner, and set an example that politicians not just in America but all over the world are sure to follow. The President has set a precedent.

For the Democrats, there is no silver lining. In 2016, they could take solace in a tight defeat by the electoral college, and in winning the popular vote and the broad support of ethnic minorities. There are no such consolations this time around. Harris has underperformed in almost every metric while Trump broadened his appeal among African-Americans, Latinos, and young people.

It is a victory that will have profound impacts on democracy, international trade, Ukraine, Gaza and more. Many of the potential consequences are chilling, but they are for another day, and another article. There will be plenty of time to look forward. But as the dust settles we must first look back, and consider the causes of such a historic election result.

While there is no doubting his political magnetism, the Democrats lost this election as much as Trump won it. It seems that lessons were not learned from 2016, or if they were, they were forgotten as soon as Biden triumphed in 2020. The comforting idea that Trump was a blip, an unfortunate but isolated chapter in the American story, was fatally naive.

How many times after Trump’s first victory, did you hear people say, ‘This is not America.’ Well, the law of fool-me-twice has proven that, actually, this is America, and the resentments and anxieties that Trump spoke to in 2016, never went away.

To beat Trump, you have to understand Trump, and you have to understand why he appeals to so many. It’s an uncomfortable prospect for his opponents. Many, including myself, view Trump as morally bankrupt, a man who has lied so much that he no longer recognises the truth, a wannabe dictator, a convicted felon, and a sexual predator who never should have got past the Access Hollywood tapes, let alone January 6th. From this standpoint, it is difficult to put yourself in the mindset of a Trump supporter, hence the common question – ‘How could anyone vote for this guy?’

Indeed, many in the Democratic party, and in the liberal media, simply can’t fathom it. So they reach for a comforting conclusion. Trump voters are either stupid, racist, sexist or all three. It’s a widespread view, and one that comes right from the top. 

During Hillary Clinton’s campaign, she infamously referred to Trump supporters as the ‘deplorables’, saying that ‘half’ were ‘racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic.’ Only eight days ago, Biden referred to Trump voters as ‘garbage’. Both comments were retracted after backlash, but if they were slips, they were Freudian ones.

The issue is, condescension never won an election. It’s entirely counterproductive. You don’t change people’s minds by talking to them, or about them, like they’re stupid. You just piss them off. 

You don’t change people’s minds by talking to them, or about them, like they’re stupid. You just piss them off.

Trump appeals to those who feel they’ve been left behind. His manifesto begins with a dedication ‘To the Forgotten Men and Women of America.’ He feeds on resentment. His populism targets middle America – rural towns in the deindustrialised heartlands, who’ve seen their jobs disappear due to globalisation, who are struggling with the cost of living, and who feel they never cross the minds of the political establishment until an election year rolls around.

All great populists succeed by positioning themselves against some sort of elite, and Trump is no exception. His narrative goes that he is fighting alongside these ‘forgotten people’ against a high-minded, metropolitan elite based largely on the liberal coasts. Of course, the irony is that, as the New York-born heir to a property empire and a former reality star, Trump bears a remarkable resemblance to the straw man he has constructed, but it’s the same trick that Farage pulls – desperately chugging pints to portray himself as a ‘normal bloke’, despite having been educated at the £18000 per term Dulwich College.

Indisputably, part of the reason the Democrats lost is because Kamala Harris, the Californian liberal lawyer, was seen as the epitome of this elite, a perception only fed by the endless celebrity endorsements that came in behind her.

And while I have highlighted the dangers of labelling Trump voters as all kinds of phobe, we must also acknowledge the ugly truth that there exists a subset of Americans who will not vote for a black person, will not vote for a woman, and will certainly not vote for a black woman. Research suggests that these numbers are low, but people are hardly likely to admit their bigotry to pollsters, and much of the bias is subconscious anyway. Many have pointed out that Trump has run three times, and only lost when facing a man.

Prejudice is sure to have played a role, but getting bogged down in identity politics risks failing to see the wood for the trees. The biggest single issue in this election – the single biggest issue in almost every election – was the economy. On this front, Harris was hamstrung by the incumbency factor. Many Americans are still feeling the pain of high inflation and, rightly or wrongly, hold the Democrat administration responsible.

In truth, Biden’s macroeconomic record was strong, something that helped Harris but also, paradoxically, hindered her. Percentage increases in GDP matter little to voters. Among the low-income families whom the Democrats have typically relied upon, there was clear discontent at being told their lot had improved when higher prices meant they were struggling to afford their groceries.

Harris was hamstrung by incumbency, with many Americans still feeling the pain of inflation and holding the Democrats responsible.

On the economy, but also on other key issues, Harris was also hurt by a lack of defined policy. Trump’s ideas may be batshit, but at least he had ideas. The lack of specificity shifted the focus from policy to personality, a game at which Trump was never going to lose.

But I am remiss to criticise Harris too much on this front. Joe Biden has a lot to answer for. For years, it’s been blindingly obvious that his age and apparent cognitive decline would preclude him from winning a second term. I wrote about these concerns back in January, but they were evident long before then.

In a remarkable display of stubbornness, Biden clung on until July 21st, when a disastrous debate performance left him no choice but to jump before he was pushed. This left Harris in an impossible position, with only 107 days to put her campaign together. The time pressure also contributed to the Democrats’ reluctance to run a proper primary, leading to the de facto coronation of a candidate now proven at the ballot box to have been unsuitable.

Dozens of other factors, including abortion, immigration, and the assassination attempt, played their part in Trump’s re election. To explore all of them, Exeposé would need to purchase some more server space.

But one group that does need to conduct a full and comprehensive autopsy on this result is the Democrats. Some serious soul-searching is required.

However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. By no means was the US election an equivalent to the Tory wipeout on this side of the pond. The margins were big, but not insurmountable. And unless he pulls a Putin and changes the rules, this will be Trump’s final term. The Democrats, and all those who oppose Trump, will get through this. But it’s gonna be one hell of a long four years.